Is Shrink-Wrapped Software Dead?

The latest issue of Time (March 17) questions whether we’ll soon see the end of commercial software installed on the PC in favor of web-based apps that do pretty much the same thing. Except for free and without the associated complexity.

I have discussed the web vs. LOB app issues in business use extensively and I believe that the trend to the web will continue. Simply because it cuts costs. Not just in the purchase price of the software but also the maintenance, patching, upgrading and migrating from one version to the next. Not to mention a full time person (or a support contract from an IT solution provider) to keep it all together.

Home market is a different story. While at work you create documents, print invoices, email extensively and manage appointments and calendars, your home life might be a little different. Editing pictures. Producing video. Webcam with friends and family. All very bandwidth intense applications, where having 10,000 fonts makes a huge difference. Has anyone sent you a business memo written in Windings? Now have you ever plucked a funky font for a flyer or a party announcement?

Web applications are great for business which needs the bare minimums to get the job done. For home use, I expect something to compensate for my lack of skill, even if I need to throw the processing power of a small server at it to make it look good.

I don’t think that the home / end user market is going to be as driven to the web apps as they will to the sub-$100 commercial software. Go to your local Best Buy, the most successful electronics dealer in America, and compare the square footage they dedicate to boxed software when compared to the flat screen TVs. They wouldn’t dedicate that much space to something that didn’t sell.

For the sake of the argument, here is what Anita Hamilton offered as the paid software vs. free software alternatives:

What do you think?